Global supply-chain stress is rising again, with several gauges that flashed red during the pandemic climbing on a recent energy shock and pushing up freight costs, delays and input prices. [1, 2]
The New York Fed's global supply chain pressure index has risen for 3 straight months and jumped sharply in April to its highest level in nearly 4 years, while the World Bank's index is now nearing its pandemic peak. [1, 2]
The measures are still below the worst levels seen during COVID-19, but some logistics data have already returned to their highest readings since the 2020-2023 pandemic period. [1, 2]
Reuters and Bloomberg said the squeeze could keep central banks alert to the risk that inflation may flare again. [3, 1, 2]
Shipping firms have helped drive the strain higher. Since December 2023, some carriers have avoided the Red Sea on security and insurance grounds and rerouted ships around southern Africa, adding time and fuel costs and tightening capacity. [1, 2]
Maersk chief executive Vincent Clerc said last week that the company is facing an extra $500 million in monthly costs in the second quarter and plans to raise prices for customers, with the option of slowing vessels to save fuel. He said the company needs to fully pass on higher energy costs and warned about inflation and weaker demand after the Iran war. [1, 2]
US manufacturing and logistics data point in the same direction. The Institute for Supply Management said delivery times posted their biggest slowdown since 2022, while input-cost inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in 4 years. The US Logistics Managers' Index showed warehouse capacity tightening at the fastest pace since March 2024 and transportation costs at their highest since spring 2018. [1, 2]
Shortages are also spreading in Europe. German chemical and plastics manufacturers reported a sharp jump in raw-material shortages last month, while shortages among automakers and parts suppliers also rose. [1, 2]
The latest reports were published on May 12, and more data on supply-chain pressure are expected to be watched closely as firms adjust shipping routes and pricing. [3, 1, 2]
