Deutsche Bank lowered its gold price forecasts for 2026 by as much as 22%, now expecting gold to reach $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter and $4,800 in the fourth quarter, down from previous estimates [1, 2, 3]. The bank warned that if the Federal Reserve raises rates three to four times instead of two, gold could fall further to around $3,800 per ounce [1, 3, 4].

Gold prices slipped below $4,000 per ounce on June 24, 2026, marking their lowest level since November 2025 amid market expectations of US interest rate hikes [5]. The current gold price stands near $4,140 per ounce as of late June 2026 [1, 2, 4].

The Fed, under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, has signaled a more hawkish policy stance, removing forward guidance and reaffirming a 2% inflation target [1, 6, 4]. Deutsche Bank anticipates two rate hikes of 25 basis points each in September and December 2026, totaling 50 basis points [7, 8, 6, 9]. The bank’s research analyst Michael Hsueh said, "Fed repricing, together with resilient US macro data, has played the primary role in pushing gold lower" [1].

Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recorded net outflows, reducing the usual support for gold prices [1, 4, 10]. However, central bank demand for gold remains a strong support pillar amid other headwinds [1, 3]. A Deutsche Bank precious metals strategist noted, "Gold is no longer just a unidirectional safe haven trade; it is now simultaneously influenced by Fed policy, the dollar, real rates and geopolitics" [4].

Market focus has shifted to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's upcoming congressional testimony on July 14, 2026. Analysts regard it as a key event for fresh signals on US monetary policy and inflation control. A market analyst said, "Chairman Warsh’s July congressional testimony will be a significant public test of Fed independence and policy path under his leadership" [6].

Deutsche Bank’s earlier outlook had suggested the Fed would hold rates steady for the rest of 2026, but expectations have shifted to two hikes in the latter half of the year [1, 7, 2, 8, 6, 9]. The July 14 testimony will be closely watched by investors seeking clarity on the central bank’s next moves.