Primary home sale volumes across 30 key Chinese cities rose 3% year on year in the first 18 days of April 2026, marking a notable shift after five consecutive years of weakness in China's property sector [1]. Bank of America analysts described the trend as "green shoots" of recovery and expect a sustainable long-term rebound, according to a report issued in late April [1].
Karl Choi, head of Greater China real estate research at Bank of America, pointed to several positive factors behind this improvement. "This stabilisation reflects a combination of factors, including stable rental trends in Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities with strong industrial and AI-related development," he said [1]. These cities have seen reliable demand in their rental markets, which supports housing stability.
Housing affordability has improved due to price declines exceeding 30% since 2021. This has made property more accessible to many buyers [1]. Meanwhile, the secondary-market listing volumes, which had peaked during the downturn, have recently decreased, helping to ease selling pressure [1].
Transaction momentum is shifting from the secondary market toward the primary market. Choi noted, "We are also beginning to see transaction momentum gradually transmit from the secondary to the primary market, particularly in entry-level and first-upgrade new launches." This indicates increased buyer interest in new homes, especially among first-time purchasers and those seeking their first upgrades [1].
On the ground, a Beijing property agent reported more inquiries and on-site viewings recently, although buyers remain cautious due to extended decision and transaction times [1].
The recovery signals a potential turning point after a prolonged period of market weakness. The next key data point will be the full April sales report due in early May, which will provide broader confirmation of market trends [1].
