Andy Burnham secured victory in the Makerfield by-election held on Thursday, June 18, capturing around 55% of the vote according to multiple sources [1, 2, 3]. Reform UK’s candidate, Robert Kenyon, finished second with approximately 34.5% to 35% support but fell short of expectations [1, 2, 3].

Reform UK increased its vote share in Makerfield by about 2.7 percentage points compared to the 2024 general election [1, 4]. However, the party had aimed to win closer to 18,000 votes but only managed around 15,696 [1]. The far-right Restore UK party, founded by Nigel Farage's former colleague Rupert Lowe, gained between 6.8% and 7% of the vote [1, 2, 3].

A clear gender gap in voter preferences emerged with women favoring Burnham by 53% to 32%, while men supported Kenyon by a high margin, although exact numbers for men were not provided [2, 3]. Several female voters specifically said they were put off by Kenyon's sexist and lewd social media posts that surfaced during the campaign, spurring criticism and controversy [1, 2, 3]. Public figures such as Carol Vorderman publicly demanded an apology from Kenyon after he was linked to graphic online posts about her, but Kenyon reportedly did not apologize and was advised against doing so [1, 4].

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage called the result "a dramatic, emphatic win for Andy Burnham" and acknowledged the party's poor performance. He urged voters who supported Restore UK to switch their allegiance to Reform, posting a video on June 19 appealing for unity against other parties [1]. Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, described the result as "unarguably Reform’s worst night since the General Election" [2]. Damien Lyons Lowe, chief executive of Survation, warned that Reform UK risks being pulled further right by trying to outdo Restore UK, calling such a move a "strategic misstep" [2].

Reform UK is still a relatively young party, eight years old with only five years under its current name, and it has limited experience in senior campaigning roles [2, 3]. Despite topping national polls for more than a year, Reform has won only one by-election seat so far, by a margin of six votes last year [4].

The party is now investigating whether Robert Kenyon’s controversial posts damaged its chances in the by-election and the potential impact on voter turnout, especially among women [1, 2, 4, 3].