Andy Burnham, Greater Manchester Mayor and Labour candidate, is contesting the Makerfield by-election on June 18, 2026, aiming to return to Westminster and potentially challenge incumbent Prime Minister Keir Starmer [1, 2, 3].

Makerfield, a constituency in northern England with about 77,000 voters, will play a key role in deciding political momentum leading up to future national elections [1, 2]. Labour held Makerfield by 13 points over Reform UK in the 2024 general election, before Labour MP Josh Simons stepped down in May 2026 to allow Burnham to contest the seat [1, 2].

Polls in June show Burnham leading the main rival, Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, by 5 to 12 points in the constituency [1, 2, 3]. Meanwhile, Restore Britain, a newer party founded in February 2026 by Rupert Lowe following a split from Reform UK, is polling around 7% to 8%, creating a fragmented right-wing vote [1, 2, 3].

Restore Britain positions itself to the right of Reform UK and advocates hardline immigration policies including mass deportations [1, 2, 3]. Rupert Lowe commands a sizable online following amplified through Elon Musk’s social media platform X [3]. Its candidate for Makerfield is local businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd, while Reform UK runs Robert Kenyon [3].

The split on the populist right has increased political fragmentation. Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, has warned voting for Restore Britain risks enabling "perhaps the most left-wing prime minister of modern times" [1]. Local resident Peter Thompson said the multiple parties may ultimately benefit Labour, as "there’s that many parties that you can vote for now, I think it will swing it to Labour’s advantage, unfortunately" [1].

Tim Bale, politics professor at Queen Mary University of London, said the right-wing fragmentation reflects a decade-long shift pushing the UK Conservative Party toward populist right positions, where it no longer sounds like a mainstream center-right party on issues like migration and culture wars [3].

The Makerfield by-election on June 18 will determine if Burnham can convert his regional popularity into a parliamentary seat and influence the leadership dynamics within Labour and across the UK political right [3].