Sports betting experts offered daily home run prop picks for Major League Baseball games from May 11 to May 16, 2026, spotlighting players with favorable matchups and betting odds. Analysts from SportsLine, Forbes, and others provided their top bets by date, aiming to capitalize on recent performance trends and pitching matchups [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9].
On May 11, SportsLine expert Angelo Magliocca selected Spencer Jones (+542), Daulton Varsho (+473), and Pete Alonso (+410) as top home run prop bets [1]. The following day, Jacob Fetner recommended Aaron Judge (+290), Junior Caminero (+360), and Brandon Lowe (+430), while SportsLine models added Julio Rodriguez (+420) and George Springer (+340) [2, 3]. Fetner noted, "Aaron Judge is hitting .227 with a .961 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season, with five home runs in 56 plate appearances. He has been on a tear lately, hitting four home runs over his last 10 road games" [2].
May 13 bets highlighted Ben Rice (+313), Moises Ballesteros (+592), and Liam Hicks (+680), with Forbes also citing JJ Bleday as a strong candidate. Fetner commented, "Ben Rice is hitting .300 with a 1.065 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season, with eight of his 13 home runs coming off RHPs. Small sample, but Ben Rice is 3-for-5 against Kyle Bradish in his career, with 1 of those 3 hits being a home run" [4, 10].
On May 14, picks varied between experts. Adam Thompson chose Matt Olson (+338) and Willy Adames (+501), while Jacob Fetner recommended Manny Machado (+489), James Wood (+330), and Liam Hicks (+630) [5, 6, 11]. Olson remains a consistent favorite, with Thompson saying, "The Braves' offense ranks No. 1 in runs scored and No. 2 in home runs, and the leader is Olson. The first baseman is a slugger. He's hit 14 home runs this season, tops on the team and fifth-most in all of MLB" [5]. Fetner noted Machado is due for a rebound facing left-handed pitchers despite a recent slump [6].
May 15 featured Ketel Marte (+235), Gunnar Henderson (+390), Mickey Moniak (+309), and Ildemaro Vargas (+571). Fetner highlighted Henderson's platoon edge, stating, "Gunnar Henderson (bats L) has the platoon advantage against right-handed Zack Littell. Despite batting .207 with a .648 OPS vs RHP this season, Henderson has six of his nine home runs against RHPs" [7, 8, 12]. For May 16, Kyle Schwarber (+225) and Ildemaro Vargas (+725) topped the picks. Schwarber entered the season with 20 home runs and stayed prominent through mid-May [9].
Experts stressed the difficulty of hitting prop bets on home runs due to low success rates but noted profitability when winners do occur. SportsLine reported combined MLB straight and parlay bets yielded 133.4 units up with ladder plays contributing 25.3 units between 2022 and 2025 seasons [1]. Season profits from the best home run bets reached $625 as of May 13, 2026 [10]. Analysts heavily weigh matchup factors such as pitcher handedness, pitcher struggles, player splits, and ballpark conditions when making picks [2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8].
The daily forecast of home run prop bets continues to draw interest, with experts due to update future picks soon. The next scheduled release will cover games beyond May 16, 2026.
