The United Arab Emirates announced on April 28 that it is exiting OPEC after more than 50 years of membership [1]. The UAE energy ministry said the decision "reflects the UAE's long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production" [1]. The ministry added the country "reinforces its commitment to a responsible, reliable, and forward-looking role in global energy markets" and to market stability [1].
Prior to the outbreak of the Iran war, the UAE had been pumping about 3 million barrels of oil per day. Its reported output capacity has since grown to around 4.8 million barrels per day and continues to rise [1]. Analysts said the move surprised many and marked a significant political shift. Daniel Sternoff commented, "It's a break with one of Saudi Arabia's core priorities and comes as the UAE has felt the US, Israel France and other countries have proven to be better allies during this war than their neighbors" [1].
Observers at Axios noted the exit will complicate OPEC's ability to manage oil output and keep prices stable [1]. Rystad Energy warned a "structurally weaker OPEC, with less spare capacity concentrated within the group, will find it increasingly difficult to calibrate supply and stabilize prices" [1]. Richard Goldberg added, "Between Iran and Russia working to undermine the Gulf Arab states every day, while the U.S. demonstrates historic commitment to their defense, why stay in bed with your adversaries when you can realign with your closest oil producing ally, the United States?" [1].
The UAE's departure removes one of OPEC's largest producers, signaling a shift in regional energy politics. The decision aligns with efforts to expand domestic production capabilities beyond the cartel's output limits [1]. The UAE will continue investing in its energy industry while maintaining a declared commitment to global market stability [1].