Sixteen months into his second presidency, Donald Trump remains unpopular with the general electorate but retains strong support from his core MAGA voters, holding a 35% approval rating as of May 18, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll [1]. Inflation and energy costs linked to the Iran war have affected his overall standing.
In May 2026, Trump began a purge of Republican incumbents he viewed as disloyal. On May 5, five Indiana state senators who opposed Trump’s redistricting demands lost to Trump-endorsed challengers [1]. Senator Bill Cassidy, who voted to convict Trump in his 2021 impeachment trial, was defeated on May 16 by a Trump-backed candidate [1]. On May 19, a Trump-supported loyalist defeated Representative Thomas Massie in a Kentucky nominating contest [1, 2]. On the same day, Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Senator John Cornyn despite concerns that Paxton’s scandals could jeopardize the seat [1].
Trump’s strategy appears focused on mobilizing his MAGA base rather than appealing to independents or moderate Republicans [1, 2]. However, some Republican strategists warn the purge could harm the party’s chances of retaining control of Congress in the November midterm elections. "Anytime the party in power in the midterm elections faces headwinds, the president should be looking to grow his coalition," said GOP strategist Jeff Grappone [1].
The coming months will test whether Trump’s approach energizes sufficient turnout from his supporters to offset potential losses among moderates and independents. The November midterm elections will serve as the next major benchmark for the party’s success.
