New York Fed data show about 2.6 million U.S. student loan borrowers entered default in the first quarter of 2026, after about 1 million fell into default in the fourth quarter of 2025. [1, 2]
The bank said the defaults were concentrated among older borrowers, borrowers in Southern states and people who had not missed federal student loan payments before the pandemic. [1] It said student loan delinquency balances have risen since pandemic payment pauses ended and are now close to pre-pandemic levels. [3, 2]
Federal student loans were paused for more than 3 years during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Education Department did not report delinquencies to credit bureaus during the 2023-10 to 2024-10 on-ramp period. [1, 2] Default records began appearing in credit reports again in the fourth quarter of 2025. [1, 2]
The New York Fed said federal authorities still have the power to collect on student debt by seizing tax refunds, wages and Social Security benefits, but those collections remain on hold for now. [1, 2] Researcher Daniel Mangrum said, “拖欠轉換率大致穩定，而學生貸款拖欠正回歸疫情前水平。” [2]
The central bank's researchers said a second wave of defaults might emerge as more borrowers resume repayment, though they added that the spillover to the broader credit market may be limited. [1, 2] The next key federal step is the eventual restart of collections on defaulted loans. [1]
