The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passes, has been closed since March 2026, marking about two months of disruption as of early May 2026 [1]. Experts had long considered a full closure unthinkable and unmanageable, based on prior modeling and interviews. Sam Ori said, "The idea was laughed out of the room. The view was that it just wasn't credible and would be seen as alarmist" [1].
In major oil disruption exercises in 2007 and 2022, a full shutdown of the Strait was considered but not modeled. Experts judged a full closure either too unlikely or too large in scale to plan around meaningfully [1]. The 2007 exercise simulated less extreme disruptions that pushed oil prices to $165 a barrel after a year, but did not contemplate a total shutdown [1].
Patrick Pouyanné remarked on the recent crisis, "I never looked at a map as precisely as I have done in the last few weeks at the Strait of Hormuz. It's part of the sea, anybody can navigate it. ... the potential for it to be closed was probably underestimated" [1]. Unlike canals such as Suez or Panama, the Strait is a sea route open to all navigation, which complicated earlier risk assessments [1].
Despite the scale of the closure, oil prices have stayed near $100 a barrel, with the stock market mostly unfazed so far [1]. Sam Ori noted market resilience, but warned, "If this goes on for another three months, people'" — suggesting ongoing uncertainty in the coming months [1].
The closure that began in March 2026 continues to disrupt global energy flows two months later, with no immediate end in sight [1].