The Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) issued a red alert today for a high risk of severe transboundary haze affecting Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore for the remainder of 2026 [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6].

The worst haze conditions are expected in August and September, marking a peak period of danger for the region [1, 2, 3, 5, 6]. The alert comes as a strong El Niño event creates hotter and drier weather, potentially a "super El Niño" lasting into 2027, which fuels forest and peatland fires across parts of Southeast Asia [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6].

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast to develop around July or August and likely prolong the dry season and haze risks into October [2, 3, 4, 5, 6].

The haze largely stems from forest fires and land clearing in Indonesia and neighboring countries. Economic pressures and rising demand for biofuels have raised concerns that producers may turn to cheaper but unsustainable fire-clearing methods, increasing hotspots [1, 2, 3, 5, 6]. Nearly 20% of deforestation in 2025 was linked to expansion for food and bioenergy crops [6].

Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto will confront his first high-risk dry season amid limited fire prevention budgets and economic uncertainty [1, 2, 5]. The country has bolstered response efforts through an inter-agency Forest and Land Fire Coordination Desk and expanding community firefighting capacities [5].

SIIA chairman Simon Tay stressed the need for a broad approach, saying, "There is much that can be done to prevent the worst and strengthen climate resilience, energy and food security, and regional cooperation" [1, 6]. He cautioned that economic pressures could affect sustainable land practices across supply chains, especially among small and medium enterprises [5].

SIIA has only issued two red alerts since 2019, both in El Niño years linked to severe haze—in 2023 and now in 2026 [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]. Past severe haze episodes in 1997 and 2015 also coincided with super El Niño and positive IOD events [2, 4, 6].

Forest fires and hotspots have already persisted in parts of Indonesia and Johor early this year, causing weeks of haze in Singapore [2, 4]. SIIA associate director Khor Yu-Leng noted ongoing energy market disruptions could further strain food producers and land management [3, 6].

The positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to develop from July into August 2026 and likely prolong haze conditions [2, 4, 6]. The peak haze risk period spans August to September [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6].

Regional governments and communities continue preparations to mitigate fire risks during this key period.