Ukraine and its allies reported increased confidence that Russia’s invasion is running out of steam. Kyiv has largely stabilized the frontline and halted Moscow’s spring offensive, according to multiple official sources. [1, 2]

Ukraine has enhanced its drone capabilities to inflict heavy losses on Russian forces. Kyiv has also conducted strikes behind front lines and inside Russia, which has added to domestic criticism of President Vladimir Putin. [1, 2] The prolonged conflict, combined with economic slowdown and internet restrictions inside Russia, has led to rising war fatigue among ordinary Russians, weakening support for the war effort. [1, 2]

Some senior Kremlin officials reportedly believe the conflict has reached a dead end without a clear path to resolution. [1, 2] President Putin is said to want to end the war by the end of 2026, but only on terms that constitute a Russian victory, including full control over eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied claims that any deadline has been set for ending the war. [1, 2]

In response to threats of renewed Russian offensives, Kyiv announced a major security buildup in northern Ukraine on May 21. President Volodymyr Zelensky warned of a possible Russian attack from the Bryansk region and Belarus, reminiscent of Moscow’s failed early invasion attempts near Kyiv. [1, 2] Ukraine is bracing for a possible additional Russian push this summer and anticipates the Kremlin may launch another conscription campaign to reinforce its forces. [1, 2]

Fighting increased after a winter lull but Ukraine’s forces have mostly held their positions. Conflict mapping data from DeepState and Ukraine’s Defence Ministry showed the frontline stabilized across much of the front as of mid-May. [1, 2] NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said during a foreign ministers meeting in Helsingborg, Sweden, on May 22 that “Ukraine is putting up a strong defence. If you look at the frontline at the moment, it is stabilising. Ukraine is even regaining territory in net terms.” [2]

Investor confidence in Ukraine also rose, with the value of Ukraine’s dollar bonds maturing in 2029 climbing to a record 84 cents on the dollar on May 22, up from 70 cents in March. [2]

The next significant test for Ukrainian defenses is the potential Russian offensive expected this summer, which Kyiv is preparing to counter while monitoring Kremlin political and military moves closely. [1, 2]