Saudi Arabia’s crude shipments to China are expected to fall to 13 million to 14 million barrels in June, down from about 20 million barrels in May, according to multiple media reports on May 12. [1, 2, 3]
The June volume would also be far below the 40 million to 50 million barrels Saudi Arabia typically sent each month to China before the Iran war began. [1, 2, 3]
All of the June cargoes bound for China will leave via Yanbu on the Red Sea coast, as Saudi Arabia tries to partly offset lower exports caused by disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. [1, 2, 3]
Saudi Aramco’s official June selling prices were described by traders as above spot prices for other Middle East crude benchmarks, which some buyers saw as less attractive. [1, 2, 3] The reports also said several large Chinese refiners cut June crude liftings or purchases. [2, 3]
A separate report said China’s crude imports and tanker arrivals were both running at low levels, with refiners trimming run rates and drawing on inventories. In April, China’s crude imports fell 20% year on year to a nearly four-year low, and refinery throughput was estimated to have been cut by as much as 643,000 barrels per day. [4]
One report said 69 supertankers, each able to carry 2 million barrels, were scheduled to arrive in China over the next 90 days. [4]
The next key date in the market will be the June loading and delivery window for Saudi cargoes to China. [1, 2, 3]
