Chinese investors are betting Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will use their Beijing meeting to keep a fragile trade truce alive and give Chinese stocks and the yuan a lift. [1, 2, 3]
Markets are not pricing a full reset in US-China ties. Instead, they are watching for signs the two leaders can avoid fresh friction over trade, technology and geopolitics. [1, 2, 3]
Traders have taken a tactical rather than structural approach to Chinese assets. Common positions include yuan longs and selective buying in shares tied to currency stability, export resilience, domestic tech spending and AI demand. [1, 2, 3, 4]
The summit is widely seen as unlikely to produce a major deal. Even so, reports say the sides could still reach smaller agreements or stage-by-stage understandings on issues such as Chinese purchases of US soybeans or Boeing aircraft. [1, 5, 2, 6, 3, 7]
The yuan has already strengthened in the run-up to the talks. Over the past three months, the onshore currency has risen about 1.7% against the dollar and reached its strongest level since early 2023, with 6.79 emerging as a near-term line in the sand. [1, 8, 9, 3, 4]
Goldman Sachs lifted its 12-month yuan forecast to 6.5 and said the currency is more than 20% undervalued. Market participants and some institutions also cite easing US-China tensions, a weaker dollar, a large trade surplus and policy guidance as support for further gains. [1, 8, 9, 3, 4]
Trump is due in Beijing on Wednesday evening and is set to meet Xi on Thursday, according to multiple reports. Beijing confirmed the visit on Tuesday, and several reports said the trip had been delayed by the Iran conflict. [5, 10, 3, 7]
The talks are expected to cover Taiwan, tariffs, rare earths, the Iran war and AI. Reports also said Beijing is preparing a high-level welcome, though one likely less extravagant than Trump’s 2017 visit. [5, 6, 11, 4, 7]
